Preparing for Winter in August?

The Shift from Peak to Off-Peak

As peak season winds down, booking patterns can change quickly.

Booking windows stretch. Occupancy slows. Competition for fewer guests pushes rates down. If you wait until the calendar looks thin, you are already reacting to a market that has moved on.

For STR investor-operators managing 50, 100, or 200-plus units, these shifts can create a rapid chain reaction. A few weeks of inaction in August can turn into a full quarter of missed revenue and compressed margins.

The Cost of Waiting

We have seen the same pattern play out in every market:

• Revenue erosion when rates are adjusted reactively instead of proactively

• Lower occupancy as booking pace slows and gaps become harder to fill

• Margin squeeze as discounts and marketing spend rise while demand falls

By the time these signs show up in the P&L, the opportunity to capture steady off-season bookings is already diminished.

The 3-Step Off-Season Pricing Plan

Every August, we run a portfolio-wide process to prepare for the off-peak season. It aligns pricing with market conditions before booking pace declines.

1. Calculate 12-Month Seasonality

• Pull monthly market ADR and occupancy data for each property

• Calculate monthly market revenue and create a seasonality index

• Use property data to establish monthly seasonality for each group

2. Re-Tune Group Settings

• Configure groups in PriceLabs if not already set

• Adjust far-out premiums

• Adjust demand factor sensitivity

• Adjust minimum stay profiles

• Adjust occupancy-based adjustments

3. Re-Tune Property Settings

• Recalculate base price using the historical median nightly rate

• Compare recalculated base price to market

• Decide if the new base price supports seasonal strategy

• Evaluate weekly and monthly discounts

Why We Do It Twice a Year

This process runs in August to prepare for off-peak and again in February for peak season.

This cadence ensures:

• Adjustments happen before booking pace shifts

• Base prices and group strategies stay aligned with the season

• Discounts and minimum stays match demand patterns, not guesswork

Why It Matters for STR Investor-Operators

For multi-market operators managing both owned and managed units, seasonality is not just about adjusting rates. It is about safeguarding portfolio performance and keeping control of margin.

A disciplined off-season pricing plan delivers:

• Steadier occupancy through slower months

• Protected margins in softer demand periods

• Clear connection between market trends and pricing execution

The takeaway:
The smartest operators treat August as the start of off-season preparation. Managing rates with foresight, structure, and precision is what keeps performance steady when the market slows. This is where experience and disciplined execution separate consistent operators from those left reacting to the calendar.